Need to make an Enquiry?
Send a message, we will respond as soon as possible
Send a message, we will respond as soon as possible
In the first quarter of 2025, the global economic landscape was characterized by modest growth, persistent geopolitical tensions, and ongoing trade uncertainties.
Trends According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth trends in Q1 2025 reflect varying economic conditions across major economies. The U.S. is projected to grow 2.7%, following 3.1% in Q3 and 2.4% in Q4 2024, driven by strong consumer spending despite tariff concerns. The Euro Area is expected to rebound to 1%, after stagnating at 0% in Q4, supported by easing inflation and monetary policy. Brazil, which slowed to 0.2% in Q4, is forecasted to accelerate to 2.2%, reflecting improved economic activity. China’s growth, rising from 1.3% in Q3 to 1.6% in Q4, is projected at 4.6%, driven by policy stimulus and infrastructure investment. India remains the fastestgrowing economy, with growth rising from 1.4% in Q3 to 1.6% in Q4, and an expected 6.5% expansion, fuelled by public investment and strong domestic demand. While India and China benefit from policy-driven growth, the U.S. and Euro Area rely on consumer activity and easing monetary conditions, whereas Brazil shows resilience despite policy constraints.
As central banks navigate the post-pandemic economic landscape, global inflation and monetary policy remain in focus. The U.S. Federal Reserve maintains an interest rate of 4.5%, with inflation at 2.8%, indicating a shift toward policy easing after aggressive rate hikes. The European Central Bank (ECB), with an interest rate of 2.65% and inflation at 2.2%, signals a more controlled inflation environment, allowing room for potential rate cuts. Similarly, Canada, where inflation stands at 2.6% with rates at 2.75%, follows a cautious monetary approach to balance growth and price stability. In contrast, China presents a unique case, with inflation at -0.7%, signalling deflationary pressures despite a 3.1% interest rate.
This suggests weakened domestic demand, prompting expectations of further policy support to stimulate growth. Overall, while Western economies are transitioning toward easing monetary policy as inflation moderates, China faces deflation risks, requiring targeted stimulus to reignite demand. Central banks will likely tread carefully, ensuring that monetary adjustments do not reignite inflation or stifle economic recovery.
Geopolitical tensions and trade disputes continue to reshape global economic landscapes. European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel has cautioned that increasing trade fragmentation could significantly elevate global inflation and suppress economic growth. She highlighted those severe disruptions, such as trade wars, might cause inflation to spike by several percentage points in the initial years, with prolonged adverse effects on economic stability. This environment has accelerated the formation of regional trade alliances, exemplified by the BRICS group—comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—expanding to include nations like Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Indonesia, fostering new economic partnerships. In the United States, the first quarter saw the S&P 500 declined by 4.63%, reflecting market volatility amid trade tensions, while the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks collectively dropped 14.9%. Despite some optimism.
that the White House might delay new tariffs and stronger-than-expected business surveys, the manufacturing sector slipped into contraction, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI falling to 49.0 in March from 50.3 in February, signalling a slowdown. Similarly, the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI edged down to 50.2 in March, indicating near-stagnation in factory output. Additionally, concerns about potential recessions intensified due to declining private sector debt and the looming threat of automotive tariffs.
There is a global concern over rising uncertainties, particularly related to tariffs and geopolitical developments. Discussions increasingly focused on these challenges and the implications of emerging technologies, such as agentic AI, on future operations. In summary, Q1 2025 presented a complex economic environment marked by steady yet subdued growth, heightened geopolitical tensions, and evolving trade relationships. Businesses and policymakers faced the challenge of navigating these uncertainties while striving for economic resilience and stability.
Nigeria's economy was significantly influenced by the rebasing of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) In the first quarter of 2025, alongside other macroeconomic developments.
Nigerian University Pension Management Company Limited (NUPEMCO) is the licensed Pension Fund Administrator for the Nigerian University System.
